Poilievre is likely to come out of the leadership review with a comfortable result, and will need to move to doing what it takes to win the next election. The challenge remains variables largely beyond his control.
Key Takeaways:
- Poilievre is likely to have a comfortable result at the leadership review, one that should largely settle questions around his leadership and make clear he is the one leading the party into the next election.
- Poilievre still has a path to win, but he undeniably faces big challenges which can be fundamentally boiled down to there being major variables that will decide the outcome of the next election that are beyond his control.
- Poilievre’s coalition of the “locked out” remains politically potent and appears to be holding together, and likely will as long as the issues that motivate this coalition remain top of mind for many voters. The question is what, and where to add the voters needed to get the Conservatives over the finish line if it remains essentially a two party race.
