The first quarter of 2026 is now over, and was supposed to clarify things. Instead it complicated them. Markets are shrugging off the most uncertain policy environment in a decade, Canada’s trade diversification is real but reshaping our leverage with the Americans, and the gap between aggregate economic indicators and how people actually feel keeps widening.
In this analysis, Tyler Meredith unpacks the dangerous divergence between policy uncertainty and market complacency. Shannon Phillips surveys the provincial landscape—crumbling fiscal positions, an LNG lifeline for BC, and a food security problem that nobody in Ottawa seems interested in solving. Ben Woodfinden argues the manoeuvring phase is over and the rest of the year will come down to three negotiations: the Alberta MOU, CUSMA, and Quebec.
- MEREDITH: The disconnect between markets, the macro-economy, downside risk, and how Canadians feel is growing. This could define 2026.
- PHILLIPS: Q1 2026 – gradually, then all at once.
- WOODFINDEN: The Manoeuvring Is Over. The Rest of 2026 Will Be Decided by Three Negotiations.
