By a process of (political) elimination, provincial tax collection will end up as the default referendum option

Key Points:

  • Most of the actual policy changes proposed by the Alberta Next Panel are unpopular.
  • The most likely proposal that will end up on a referendum ballot is provincial income tax collection.
  • The success of the panel’s initiatives and the upcoming referendum will largely depend on public understanding and perception of the costs and benefits associated with these policies. 

Premier Danielle Smith established the Alberta Next Panel earlier this year in response to what she termed a dramatic increase in separatist sentiment. But what is it really about? And what will come of it? 

This panel resurrects many of the old zombies of Alberta's brand of right-wing populism, including Senate reform, equalization, and federal energy policies. These issues, largely outside Alberta's direct control, are the political equivalent of mood music. 

Most of the actual policy changes proposed by the Alberta Next Panel – those that are in direct provincial control - remain unpopular. An Alberta Pension Plan, Alberta Police Service, and withholding services from new immigrants are all risky at best for the government. 

Premier Smith has promised that the most popular Alberta Next ideas will be put to a referendum in 2026 – a way for the Premier to build urgency and also signal she will call an early election. 

By process of elimination, I predict provincial collection of personal income tax will be the only actual policy change put before voters, and a referendum will accompany a 2026 provincial election. 

Alberta Pension Plan 

Most Albertans oppose withdrawing from the CPP and creating a smaller Alberta Pension Plan, with 63% in the official provincial survey opposing and 45-55% disapproval in polls by Janet Brown and Leger between 2023 and 2025. Concerns include higher costs, investment security, and income stability, especially among older voters, a key portion of the UCP coalition, who worry about linking benefits to Alberta's resource-driven economy.

Alberta Police Service 

Cancelling Alberta's RCMP contract and replacing it with a notional Provincial Police Service is also unpopular. A  2023 Leger poll found 54% of rural Albertans opposed creating a provincial police force, with only 23% supportive. National Police Federation polling in 2024-2025 showed 76% of Albertans in RCMP-served communities are satisfied with current policing, with 86% preferring to retain the RCMP over a provincial service. Rural municipalities consistently opposed the change. 

While the UCP could afford to shed twenty points in most rural seats, voters in smaller cities could be mobilized by this issue. 

Withholding Provincial Services from Recent Immigrants 

Alberta Next Panel participants have been asked to consider limiting provincial services to certain categories of immigrants. 

Anti-immigrant sentiment has always animated western alienation as a discourse and a cultural movement, but there is a reason why conservatives at both the provincial and federal levels have left it behind: it’s unpopular. 

Despite some evidence of an unravelling of the Canadian immigration consensus, available Alberta-based polling indicates no substantial backing for restricting services to newcomers lacking "Alberta-approved immigration permits." Putting this question on the ballot is a big political risk – one even Smith is unlikely to take. Alberta is far more diverse than most appreciate, and moderate swing voters will not see themselves in a party that veers too far into the MAGA lane. Alberta's grievance politics has always been far more successful when it is pointed at Ottawa, not at fellow Albertans. 

Provincial Collection of Personal Income Tax 

During the 2023 Budget Estimates Hearings, Finance Minister Travis Toews admitted that provincial personal income tax collection would require thousands of new employees and a parallel system to match CRA, costing about $500 million annually and forcing Albertans to file taxes twice. 

This process is complex and unfamiliar to most voters, unlike changes to policing or pension plans. Just as on equalization, the UCP will rely on public misunderstanding of fiscal federalism to navigate a referendum, potentially duping separatists into believing that provincial tax collection is the first step toward a tax revolt. This technical administrative change might serve as political cover, providing an outlet for separatist sentiment while achieving little in practice.

The 2026 Referendum Landscape 

The real policy options emerging from the Alberta Next Panel are politically narrow. 

A tax collection referendum will test whether voters will approve a $500 million per annum administrative reorganization in exchange for symbolic autonomy over tax collection. Crucially, personal income tax collection will also animate new fever dreams for Alberta separatists – the threat of withholding personal income tax revenue from Ottawa.

The outcome of the Alberta Next Panel will depend on the public appreciating the costs and benefits of provincial tax collection as they understand the costs and benefits of an Alberta Pension Plan and Alberta Police Service. This means a role for politics, and crucially, an energetic NDP Official Opposition who understand the assignment. 

 

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