MBPI exclusive polling and economic data suggest the NDP government has both the fiscal room and political capital to chart a comfortable course to the next election.
Key Takeaways:
Manitoba's fiscal path is tight but credible. Budget 2025 projected a $794 million deficit with a plan to reach surplus by 2027-28, and the province's strong economic performance — 31% GDP growth over five years, low inflation, and resilient exports despite tariff uncertainty — gives the NDP room to sustain spending commitments heading into Budget 2026.
Voters want fiscal discipline but aren't picky about spending priorities. Exclusive Pollara polling shows Manitobans care about balancing the budget, but the government has real flexibility in how it gets there — whether through health care and social spending or infrastructure investments like the widely popular Port of Churchill expansion, which functions as an economic confidence symbol the way pipelines do in Alberta and Saskatchewan.
Premier Kinew and the NDP are in a commanding political position. With Kinew polling as Canada's most popular premier and the NDP running roughly 20 points ahead of the PCs, Budget 2026 is being crafted from a position of strength — and exclusive Pollara polling shows the electorate values balanced budgets while giving the government flexibility on whether to prioritize social spending or infrastructure.
This post is for paying subscribers only
Subscribe now and have access to all our stories, enjoy exclusive content and stay up to date with constant updates.
