Ontario has been the sleeper province in Canadian politics for the better part of a decade. Doug Ford’s comfortable re-election in 2022, combined with a hollowed-out Liberal Party and an NDP unable to break through, made the province’s political direction feel settled. That has changed.
Recent polling shows the Ontario Liberals — still without a leader — surging into competitive territory, Ford’s approval numbers are back near their floor, and the New Democrats are struggling to capitalise on anti-government sentiment. The province that accounts for more than a third of Canada’s seats is suddenly in play, and the dynamics driving that volatility are worth pulling apart. Tyler Meredith argues that things are improving for the Liberals, but there's still a lot of work to be done. Ken Boessenkool argues Ford should not be counted out. And Shannon Phillips explains why the Ontario NDP remain stuck.
