MBP Ep 5: Intelligence Roundtable

National Projects, Trade Wars, and Labour Power

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In this episode, Ben Woodfinden, Tyler Meredith and Shannon Phillips discuss:

• Projects of national interest and how new polling reveals what Canadians really think about building faster while maintaining environmental and Indigenous safeguards
• Why Bill C-5 could reshape how Canada approves major infrastructure projects
• The shifting dynamics between Carney’s government, Conservative premiers, and public expectations around trade-offs, consultation, and speed
• Trump’s latest trade war escalation, what it means for Canada, the provinces, and global leverage
• Section 107 and the Notwithstanding Clause: how back-to-work powers are reshaping Canada’s labour relations landscape

Key Takeaways:

On National Projects and Public Opinion

• PHILLIPS: Canadians want it all; environmental safeguards, Indigenous consultation, and faster approvals. “They want all of the things. That is a distinctly Canadian approach.”
• MEREDITH: The public is open to conditions, unionized labour, Indigenous participation, environmental offsets, not to bypassing them.
• WOODFINDEN: “If something extraordinary continues long enough, it becomes ordinary.” Carney’s mandate to move fast risks fading if delivery lags.
• PHILLIPS: “Politics are not fixed.” The ‘don’t know’ responses in polling reveal opportunity, or danger, for both sides of the national projects debate.

On C-5 and Industrial Strategy

• MEREDITH: C-5 gives Cabinet power to act as “traffic cop” coordinating approvals, Indigenous engagement, and environmental conditions, a new form of transactional nation-building.
• PHILLIPS: The bill could accelerate transmission lines, renewable energy projects, and AI infrastructure, “That’s where you’ll get Canadians at 70% support.”
• WOODFINDEN: Conservatives and Liberals may share short-term goals but differ fundamentally on regulatory reform, “A branding and messaging divide.”

On the U.S. Trade War and Federal–Provincial Tensions

• MEREDITH: Canada’s leverage works when used strategically, not bombastically, “Pain may need to be felt on the U.S. side first.”
• PHILLIPS: “No deal is better than a bad deal.” A strong, united Canada is better positioned to face Trump’s negotiating style.
• WOODFINDEN: “The united front is fading.” Provincial freelancing is eroding national coordination, a gift to Trump’s divide-and-conquer tactics.
• MEREDITH: Lack of communication between Ottawa, provinces, and business is fueling anxiety “We cannot manage our own agenda if we do not have a coordinated response.”

On Labour Relations and Section 107

• PHILLIPS: Alberta’s pre-emptive use of the Notwithstanding Clause to end the teachers’ strike “opens a five-alarm fire” for labour rights across Canada.
• MEREDITH: Section 107 was never designed as a permanent tool,  “It’s become a relief valve governments now reach for too easily.”
• WOODFINDEN: Conservatives’ outreach to labour complicates future debates, “The dynamic in Parliament has changed more than people realize.”
• PHILLIPS: Expect deeper divides between approaches to public- and private-sector unions in conservative politics.

Around the Horn, What to Watch

• MEREDITH: EI reform is overdue, “If a recession hits, the system isn’t ready.”
• PHILLIPS: Alberta plans to invoke the Notwithstanding Clause again, this time to shield transgender legislation. “If the state can insert itself in your individual decisions, it will not stop there.”
• WOODFINDEN: Budget brinkmanship in a minority parliament is not chaos, it’s normal. “This is what minority governments look like.”

MBP Intelligence Roundtable is produced by Metamorphosis Media Group for Meredith, Boessenkool & Phillips (MBP) Intelligence.Learn more or join the MBP membership for exclusive access to policy briefings and private roundtables at mbpintelligence.com.

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Episode Transcript