Boessenkool: How to Read a Horse-Race Poll

Not all polls are created equally. Know how to read them and what to look for to cut through the noise

Key Points:

• Reading a poll correctly requires knowing something about the way the poll was constructed.
• The way the poll was conducted matters and will tell you about poll stability and who is more likely to respond.
• The questions asked matter. Polling on parties versus party leaders can generate different numbers and give you important information about whether leaders are boosting or suppressing votes.

Public horse-race polls tend to have fairly wide dispersions. Most (normal) people pay little attention to politics outside of election day. And swing voters are more likely to be low-information voters. They have lives, jobs, kids and interests outside of politics. They are unlikely to have strongly formed thoughts about who they would vote for outside of election day.