Progressive Economics in the Carney Era: Poverty Reduction, EI vs CERB, the Care Economy, and Industrial Strategy
In this week’s MBP Intelligence Briefing, Shannon Phillips and Tyler Meredith are joined by economist Armine Yalnizyan - Atkinson Fellow on the Future of Workers, for a wide-ranging conversation on what Canada gained in the Trudeau years, what’s at risk (or stalled) under the Carney government, and what a genuinely “progressive” industrial strategy would prioritize—especially the care economy, ownership, and the future of work in an AI- and services-heavy country.
In this episode, they discuss
· Meredith: The most consequential legacy of the Trudeau years was poverty reduction, driven in large part by the Canada Child Benefit alongside other targeted transfers.· Yalnizyan: CERB was globally unusual and highly effective, allowing people to stay home safely and supporting a rapid economic rebound.· Meredith: Pre-pandemic labour market tightening created more inclusive job gains for women, racialized workers, and people with disabilities.· Yalnizyan: The care economy is foundational infrastructure — without health, childcare, education, and training, growth and productivity stall.· Roundtable: Industrial strategy must address ownership, AI disruption, and economic sovereignty — not just autos, defence, and critical minerals.
On Trudeau-era legacy: Poverty, labour markets, pandemic response
· Meredith: Poverty fell significantly during the Trudeau era, with the CCB accounting for a major share of measurable gains.· Meredith: Strong pre-COVID labour markets pulled historically sidelined workers into better employment outcomes.· Yalnizyan: Pandemic supports like CERB stabilized households in ways traditional social insurance was never designed to do.
On resilience now: EI, coverage gaps, and economic shocks
· Meredith: Avoiding recession so far has mattered enormously because many households cannot meaningfully survive on EI alone.· Meredith: Canada needs modernized labour market institutions that reflect gig work, uneven hours, and technological disruption.· Yalnizyan: EI is social insurance; guaranteeing people don’t become destitute is a different policy objective and requires different tools.
On the care economy: Guardrails and industrial strategy
· Yalnizyan: Care is not a residual sector — it is one of the largest engines of employment and GDP in Canada.· Yalnizyan: Without regulatory guardrails, private equity will move quickly into publicly subsidized care sectors and extract value offshore.· Yalnizyan: A real care strategy must include workforce recruitment, retention, skill ladders, and immigration pathways to stabilize the sector.
On industrial strategy: Investment, AI, and ownership
· Yalnizyan: An investment-first strategy without conditions risks Canada becoming economically dependent while wrapped in a Canadian flag.· Meredith: Canada’s services-heavy economy makes it uniquely exposed to AI disruption and requires deliberate skills and commercialization strategy.· Roundtable: Industrial strategy must confront corporate concentration and ownership — not just what Canada produces, but who controls and reinvests it.
On pensions, power, and worker agency
· Yalnizyan: Unions should push harder for governance — trustee seats and deeper literacy — because today’s pension investment model can create a dynamic of “preparing tomorrow’s retirees by squeezing today’s workers.”· Meredith: “Fiduciary” language can become a shield against accountability, allocation decisions, fees, and public-purpose alignment, even though pension wealth is a strategic national asset if governed transparently.· Yalnizyan: Canada once deployed CPP savings directly into municipal infrastructure and housing; liberalized post-2000 rules expanded offshore investing and weakened the link between collective savings and domestic public purpose.
Armine Yalnizyan – Atkinson Fellow on the Future of Workers
Website: https://atkinsonfoundation.ca/atkinson-fellows/atkinson-fellow-on-the-future-of-workers/LinkedIn: https://ca.linkedin.com/in/armine-yalnizyan-a32b42264
Transcript:
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