Venezuela, Hemispheric Dominance, and What It Means for Canada with Rory Johnston
In this first of 2026 episode, Ben Woodfinden, Tyler Meredith, and Shannon Phillips are joined by Rory Johnston of Commodity Context, University of Toronto’s Munk School, and host of The Oil Ground Up Podcast to unpack the shock U.S. operation in Venezuela and the ripple effects for Canada.
The conversation focuses on the Canadian angle: what this episode signals about U.S. strategy and instability risk, how Venezuelan heavy crude could affect Western Canadian Select pricing, what it means for TMX and Asia-bound exports, and why the case for additional Canadian egress and demand diversification is strengthening.
In this episode, they discuss:
• What the U.S. operation in Venezuela signals about American “hemispheric dominance,” and the destabilization risks if there is no credible post-operation plan
• The split between strategic rhetoric and resource mercantilism, and why “regime change” framing may not match reality on the ground
• How sanctions, blockades, and forced trade flows could reshape heavy crude dynamics and WCS differentia
• What the Venezuela shock could mean for TMX utilization, China demand, and Canada’s evolving export geography
• The pipeline policy implications for Canada: westbound egress, energy security, and the federal–provincial bargaining terrain in a weaker price environment
Key Takeaways
On U.S. Strategy, Regime Outcomes, and Instability Risk
• WOODFINDEN: The execution may have been “clinical,” but the absence of a coherent follow-through plan elevates risks of prolonged instability and spillover effects (including migration and regional disruption)
• MEREDITH: The intervention is notable for how openly transactional it is—less “democracy promotion,” more direct resource monetization and control over proceeds
• PHILLIPS: Diaspora expectations and political messaging can diverge sharply from realities on the ground, especially if elections and institutional reform are not central to the plan
On Venezuela’s Oil Sector and the Limits of a Quick Production Surge
• JOHNSTON: Venezuela has massive reserves, but above-ground constraints are severe—human capital loss, decayed infrastructure, and unattractive fiscal terms make rapid rehabilitation highly uncertain
• JOHNSTON: The “low-hanging fruit” is not new production; it is simply allowing blocked barrels to flow—exports can rebound faster than capacity can be rebuilt
• JOHNSTON: Large-scale restoration is a multi-year, tens-of-billions proposition, and majors will be hesitant absent credible stability, durable rules, and risk-adjusted returns
On WCS Differentials and Canada’s Competitive Exposure
• JOHNSTON: If Venezuelan barrels resume flowing primarily to China, the immediate impact on WCS at Houston should be limited; the pressure intensifies if barrels are forced into the U.S. Gulf Coast to compete directly with Canadian heavy
• JOHNSTON: Market narratives have likely over-shot—Canada has historically competed with Venezuelan heavy; the bigger Canadian vulnerability is policy/egress constraints rather than “existential” competition
• PHILLIPS: In a softer market, even modest widening in heavy differentials can translate into material public-revenue hits, amplifying fiscal stress in resource-dependent provinces
On TMX, Asia Demand, and Canada’s Demand Security
• JOHNSTON: TMX strengthens Canada’s ability to reach global markets more efficiently and with greater sovereignty than routing barrels through U.S. systems; demand pull matters as much as capacity
• JOHNSTON: If the U.S. constrains Venezuela–China flows, China’s heavy-crude shortfall can increase bids for Canadian barrels, reinforcing the strategic value of westbound egress
• MEREDITH: This may improve Canada’s negotiating position with Asian buyers, but also adds geopolitical sensitivity if Washington perceives Canadian flows as undercutting U.S. strategy
On Pipeline Choices and Federal–Provincial Negotiation Dynamics
• JOHNSTON: West Coast egress supports demand security and diversification; eastbound options support domestic supply security; southbound routes may be “easiest” commercially but deepen U.S. concentration risk
• PHILLIPS: The scale and risk profile of new linear infrastructure makes meaningful public participation likely, with future questions about structure, ownership, and reversion
• MEREDITH: Lower prices weaken provincial fiscal positions and can shift leverage and urgency in federal–provincial negotiations—while also triggering industry arguments about affordability of emissions policy and decarbonization capex
Rory Johnston’s Contact Details
Twitter: x.com/Rory_Johnston
Web: www.commoditycontext.com (www.commoditycontext.com/)
Contributor - Venezuelan Article of Interest: thedispatch.com/newsletter/dispatch-energy/trump-venezuela-oil-maduro/
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